Gain a better and more enjoyable grip on achieving your objectives in project, program, portfolio and asset management.
Welcome back to our UFO© blog series. To refresh your memory, UFO stands for "Unidentified Flying Objects." With the UFO Matrix, we aim to guide the discussion about risks and uncertainties, helping to make what remains "Unidentified" as much "Identified" as possible. This allows for better management and utilization of uncertainties.
In the previous UFO© blogs, we explained the concept of the UFO and the 8 'birds' we recognize within it. In this blog, we continue with a brief explanation of two of the eight birds from the UFO matrix: the Goose and the Ostrich.
Unforeseen certain event
Where in our previous two blogs we talked about foreseeable events, here we talk about unforeseen events.
The Goose and Ostrich symbolize unforeseen, certain events. These are desirable or undesirable events that are certain to occur but are not on the agenda of the project, program, or portfolio.
The Goose represents (un)desirable events that will certainly occur, are not foreseen, and the impact or scope of which can be controlled or exploited within one's own area of responsibility.
The Ostrich symbolizes the (un)desired events that will certainly occur, are not foreseeable, and whose impact or magnitude cannot be controlled or exploited beyond one's own responsibility.
Ideally, we wouldn't have (zero) geese and ostriches in the project, program, or portfolio, but reality is stubborn. Not everything that can be foreseen is actually foreseen in time (in the form of a turkey or owl). Sometimes we simply forget things that are our own responsibility and are (consciously or unconsciously) "blind" to certain events in the context because "that's not our responsibility." And of course, some certain events are truly unforeseeable.
Referring back to the example in our previous blogs about foundations: It can happen during a project that an old foundation or other building remains are discovered, even though this could have been foreseen but wasn't investigated, even though it was already known from previous excavations or soundings. Or perhaps the project "forgot" to include the demolition of the old foundation in the schedule and/or cost estimate. For such omissions, it's common practice to include a contingency budget in the schedule and estimate.
My Goose or Your Ostrich?
In other words, who is responsible for managing the uncertainty surrounding the unforeseen, but certain, event?
As always, the basic rule applies here too : the (responsibility for) managing uncertainty essentially lies with the party that can best utilise the uncertainty (in the case of an opportunity) or best manage it (in the case of a threat).
Discussing responsibilities seems difficult in advance, as we don't know what we're talking about—after all, these are unforeseen events. However, it's possible to make sound agreements about how to handle unforeseen events, especially if they were foreseeable, and above all, about (limiting) the impact on, for example, the costs and lead time of a project, program, or portfolio. It's also important to have a proper discussion and make clear agreements about how to handle the responsibilities of the contractor and client, respectively.
ostrich policy
You'd prefer to completely prevent (stupid) geese by actually (trying to) anticipate certain events for which you are responsible and which are foreseeable. For those certain events that are someone else's to control or exploit, it's even more important to anticipate them: How do we turn an ostrich into an owl?!
Burying your head in the ground for such certain events for which someone else is responsible, burying your head in the sand, will not help you in this regard.
For example, thinking as a client that a contractor is "owner of the project" and therefore also the owner of all unforeseen, certain events is a form of burying one's head in the sand. Without proper prior agreements, people tend to dismiss geese (the unforeseen, certain events that can best be managed within one's own sphere of responsibility) as ostriches. This means holding the contractor responsible for risks beyond their control.
Having your contractor construct a new foundation as part of a project plan without stipulating the removal of the existing foundation, thus incurring delays and additional costs, is a stupid goose, not an ostrich. The fact that foundation rubble cannot be removed for a certain period due to an unforeseen, yet foreseeable, road closure for the annual Village Festival, which always takes place in May, is a stupid goose from the client's perspective.
The use of the (dumb) Goose metaphor reminds us to take responsibility for our own work and responsibility, to "have we forgotten something that will surely come our way and that we ourselves are responsible for?" The Ostrich, on the other hand, helps us "map and keep track" of what others need to take on and to transform Ostriches into Owls.
Finally
Stay tuned for the next blog in this series, where we'll discuss the crowing rooster and the swan's song. Until next time!
