Gain a better and more enjoyable grip on achieving your objectives in project, program, portfolio and asset management.
In the previous UFO© blogs, we explained the concept of the UFO and the 8 'birds' we recognize within it. After the Turkey and the Owl in the previous blog, the next two birds from the UFO matrix fly by in this blog: the Peacock and the Stork.
Foreseeable uncertain event
When we talk about the Peacock and the Stork, we're talking about anticipated uncertain events. These are desired or undesired events that are uncertain to occur and whose impact, magnitude, and consequences are not yet clear, and therefore uncertain. In other words: the anticipated event may occur, but it may also not. And if the anticipated event does occur, the precise effect isn't necessarily clear. Furthermore, if you've explicitly acknowledged the event (for example, in a risk file), it's not a complete surprise because you had it in mind. Whose responsibility for managing that uncertainty falls determines whether the event is a Peacock or a Stork.
Continuing with the example of removing the foundation from the previous blog post: The project organization anticipates a (small) chance that the amount of foundation to be removed will be significantly greater than the assumed bandwidth for the amount of foundation to be removed. This will then lead to significant delays in time and therefore costs. And that raises the question:
My Peacock or Your Peacock?
And "my peacock or your stork?" In other words, who is responsible for managing the uncertainty surrounding this uncertain event?
Of course, the basic rule also applies here : the (responsibility for) managing uncertainty essentially lies with the party that can best utilise the uncertainty (in the case of an opportunity) or best manage it (in the case of a threat).
Is the aforementioned risk a peacock for the contractor/subcontractor who will remove the foundation, and therefore a stork for the project organization? Or is it something else entirely?
The contractor is generally best placed to account for the additional foundation removal, but they also won't automatically keep additional manpower and equipment on standby to scale up if necessary. Especially if they are solely responsible for these costs. At the very least, proper discussions are essential, and clear agreements must be made regarding what is and isn't the contractor's responsibility. So, not necessarily a "stork" for the client.
The contractor's equipment could also malfunction, delaying the removal of the old foundation. Such an undesirable event seems like a clear boon for the contractor. It's still good to discuss this thoroughly!
The stork is not a farm animal, the peacock is!
Although you often see storks on farms, especially if a nesting post has been placed there, it is not a farm animal that the farmer should care for.
The project sees them flying in (possible occurrence) on the farm (the project), but the stork is not one of the farm animals for which the project itself is responsible for caring on the farm (the project).
To remember the peacock as a metaphor for a foreseeable uncertain event: Remember that the peacock initially has a beautiful plumage, whether you get to see it is the question, and if the peacock does show it, is it such a beautiful plumage or does it turn out that many peacock feathers are missing, in which case the effect is really different.
Finally
Next time in the blog: the 4 other birds you can encounter in your project, program, portfolio, asset management: The (dumb) goose, The ostrich (with its head in the sand), the (late crowing) rooster and the swan(song)!
