Gaining a better and more enjoyable grip on achieving your objectives in project, program, portfolio, and asset management.
Just before the summer, Delta Pi introduced the UFO Matrix©. At the time, we promised a further explanation of the visual language that UFO represents, in order to facilitate a better conversation about dealing with uncertainties. And 'boy oh boy,' what a lot of uncertainty has been added this year to discuss.
Although UFO can also be used to talk about uncertainty in the world, let's leave that aside for now. Let's start small(er) first and explain the concept of UFO. After all, how do you actually apply UFO to achieving your objectives in project, program, portfolio, and asset management?
UFO, what is it for?
With UFO, we aim to incorporate visual language into the improved conversation about how to manage uncertainties related to the objectives being pursued. Whether these are project objectives, asset management objectives, or otherwise. UFO is intended to facilitate better discussions about the uncertainties involved and who is responsible for managing or capitalizing on them.
With UFO we want to make – so to speak – 'Unidentified Flying Objects' as 'Identified' as possible and, more importantly, better manage and utilize uncertainties.
UFO, what are the key concepts?
To better understand and apply the UFO concept, we will explain the key concepts related to UFOs.
- The Farm The farm represents your project, program, portfolio or asset for which you (or your organization) are responsible.
- Farm birds are domesticated birds that typically walk and fly around a farm. UFO distinguishes between turkeys, gooses, roosters, and peacocks. They also walk and fly around your project, program, or asset.
- The 'Wild birds' are the birds that are not domesticated and do not primarily fall under the care of the farmer. At UFO, we recognize the Owl, the Swan, the Stork, and the Ostrich. These are the birds that are not typically found on the farm but do fly over or pay a brief (expected or unexpected) visit. And oh yes, of course. The ostrich is the only bird species among the eight UFO birds that does not occur in the wild in the Netherlands. So, it won't 'really' drop by the farm (and yes, there are ostrich farms too). Why the ostrich, then? Because UFO is not limited to applications in the Netherlands but applies beyond. But above all, because an ostrich can be presented as a fantastic metaphor. Simply explained, the 'tame' birds are metaphors/visualizations of uncertainties that need to be managed/utilized within the responsibility of the 'keeper,' the farmer. The wild birds primarily refuse to be 'keeperd.' Certainly not by the keeper of the 'tame' birds.
- The Farmer (* de Boer(in*)) here stands for a role holder in a project, program, portfolio, organization, or asset who views the world from their perspective. Specifically, from the perspective of what he/she – the farmer – is responsible for. What uncertainties does he/she face? What does he/she have under his/her care?
UFO, how do I read the axes of the UFO Matrix©?
In the UFO Matrix©, you'll see the concepts of "certain" and "uncertain" on one axis, and "foreseen" and "unforeseen" on the other, alongside the birds on and off the farm. Below, we explain how to read the axes.
Axis 1 – Certain versus Uncertain
If there is only a probability (a chance) that an event will occur, we call it an uncertain event. If the event is certain to occur (the probability is 100%, 1), we call it a certain event in the case of a UFO.
Axis 2 – Foreseeable versus Unforeseen
"Foreseen or not foreseen, that is the question." If the event is named and recorded, then in UFOs we call it a foreseen event. If the event is unnamed and unrecorded, then in UFOs we call it an unforeseen event.
In this context, an event is something that happens. An occurrence or fact that is certain or uncertain to occur.
Note 1: Events you didn't foresee aren't necessarily unforeseeable! More on that in a later blog post.
Note 2: In practice, it often turns out that unforeseen events during the course of a project, for example, are identified but not documented or followed up. A missed opportunity!
UFO, desired events versus unwanted events
On the road to achieving your goals, you'll face a lot of uncertainty, both positive and negative.
The ISO-31000 standard refers to the effect of uncertainty on achieving your objective as 'risk'. This means that risk can be interpreted as both positive and negative.
At Delta Pi, and therefore at UFO, we like to talk about "desired" and "undesired" events. And about goal-oriented thinking instead of doom-mongering. Two more concepts. We'll tell you more about that in a future blog post.
UFO, 'figuring it out'
So much for the concepts. Now all that's left is to figure it out. UFO helps figure out which events can/will occur, whether they are certain or uncertain, foreseen or unforeseen, and desired or undesired. And UFO helps figure out who is responsible for which event/uncertainty, and who can – and should – help, for example, by taking action.
Events/uncertainties that can be visualized in the form of one of the eight birds from the UFO Matrix©. In fact, all events you can imagine can be visualized in one, and no more, of the eight birds.
But which bird? And which event will occur and which won't? In other words, which bird will fly and which won't?
More about that in the next blog! Starting with the Turkey and the Owl on the way to Christmas!
