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In the previous UFO© blog, we explained the concept of the UFO and the 8 'birds' we recognize within it. In this blog, we continue with a brief explanation of two of the eight birds from the UFO matrix: the Turkey and the Owl.
Foreseeable certain event
When we talk about the Turkey and the Owl, we're talking about foreseeable, certain events. These are desired or undesired events that will certainly occur, but whose impact, scope, and consequences are not yet clear, and are therefore uncertain. Whose responsibility for managing this uncertainty falls determines whether the event is a Turkey or an Owl.
For example: part of a project involves the demolition of a building. While it's known that the foundation must be removed during demolition, the project organization lacks a detailed understanding of how much foundation (and what type of foundation) is present underground. Therefore, the duration and associated costs cannot yet be estimated with certainty, but they can be estimated within a certain range.
My Turkey or Your Turkey?
And "my owl or your owl?" In other words, who is responsible for managing the uncertainty surrounding the certain event? That's an important conversation to have! Speaking in terms of birds instead of "my or your uncertain, foreseeable, certain event" can be very helpful.
The basic rule here is: the (responsibility for) managing uncertainty essentially lies with the party that can best utilise the uncertainty (in the case of an opportunity) or best manage it (in the case of a threat).
In the example of removing the foundation: is it a Turkey for the contractor/subcontractor who will remove the foundation, and therefore an Owl for the project organization? Or is it something else entirely?
Consider the following metaphor for the turkey: you get 'the turkey' on your plate, but you don't know exactly how big it is.
Owls are smart animals
The desired outcome is that the foundation is limited in size and easy to remove. The undesirable outcome is that the foundation is difficult to remove and substantial in size. The fact is that the foundation will be removed, but the effort and costs are uncertain, yet can be estimated within a range.
And as a metaphor for the Owl: Owls are smart animals. They know a great deal. The project sees them flying (performing) on the farm (the project), but the Owl is not one of the farm animals the project itself is responsible for caring for on the farm (the project). Removing the foundation is an Owl's responsibility for the project; the knowledge and expertise lies with the contractor, but is certainly factored into the project's costs and schedule.
Finally, imagine that the actual cost or time required to remove the foundation ultimately falls outside the expected range. In that case, we're not dealing with a "Turkey" or an "Owl," but with two other birds from the UFO© matrix.
More information about the use of the “Peacock” and the “Stork” will be covered in the next UFO blog! So keep a close eye on our website.
